RodrigoTrump
0xf3a978689c87724f67cbe12cb8f2b4169832f104
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $267.4k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $448.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.131 | $448.61 | −$174.34 |
| Will Sporting CP beat RB Leipzig? · Yes | 0.459 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$94.00 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
| Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$135.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$666.76at 0.380Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$558.83at 0.270Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?
- +$358.41at 0.619Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$287.64at 0.714Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?
- +$215.85at 0.410Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 01:48 | Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League? | BUY | 0.1819093991 | $622.95 |
| 06-28 15:35 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.003 | $94.91 |
| 06-11 01:05 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.01 | $316.36 |
| 06-05 23:24 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $135.99 |
| 06-05 23:23 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0219999999 | $200.00 |
| 06-05 23:17 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0969999997 | $300.00 |
| 06-04 00:22 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.096 | $534.27 |
| 01-30 17:57 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0757430753 | $395.61 |
| 01-19 01:53 | Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | SELL | 0.0496477669 | $114.24 |
| 01-18 20:01 | Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | SELL | 0.0712747423 | $107.02 |
| 01-18 18:48 | Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.0253544595 | $100.00 |
| 01-16 23:49 | Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.2479686324 | $274.00 |
| 01-13 22:22 | Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.0543957614 | $125.17 |
| 01-13 22:21 | Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.3782992874 | $150.00 |
| 01-22 16:05 | Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | SELL | 0.3527564367 | $239.49 |