kgvdotcom
0xf38e6583dfa37026ee25cf0a567b8cef6307a38a
- Realised P&L
- $-142.4k
- Volume
- $13.73M
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $139.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.945 | $139.0k | −$735.20 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? · No | 0.965 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.90 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? · No | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$262.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.5kat 0.981Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$6.4kat 0.838Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$6.2kat 0.984Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$4.7kat 0.952US forces enter Iran by March 31?
- +$4.3kat 0.978Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:42 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $38.8k |
| 10-31 23:33 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $100.8k |
| 08-18 12:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? | BUY | 0.965 | $23.90 |
| 08-12 07:35 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.9940313772 | $10.9k |
| 08-12 07:35 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.9945086612 | $40.7k |
| 08-12 06:23 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.996 | $517.92 |
| 08-12 06:22 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9948996 | $5.0k |
| 08-12 05:13 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9167542596 | $4.9k |
| 08-12 05:12 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9008275861 | $5.0k |
| 08-12 05:11 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.9151627315 | $3.5k |
| 08-12 04:00 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.8 | $759.99 |
| 08-12 04:00 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7986861912 | $1.9k |
| 08-12 03:59 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.8052234898 | $4.2k |
| 08-12 03:59 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7956423229 | $5.6k |
| 08-12 03:58 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.7883938159 | $5.8k |