SebW
0xf2f2df41cd3ff33147e622869ac052ce5ad2d1f0
- Realised P&L
- $-6.7k
- Volume
- $254.8k
- Markets traded
- 4,393
- Open portfolio
- $89.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded4,393
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$181.91at 0.110Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
- +$160.68at 0.400Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
- +$104.54at 0.180Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
- +$90.83at 0.180Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?
- +$86.21at 0.217Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 14:02 | Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 09-22 13:48 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 09-22 13:36 | No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.62 | $5.29 |
| 09-22 13:32 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.37 | $6.16 |
| 09-22 13:19 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25? | SELL | 0.62 | $12.40 |
| 09-22 13:11 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.78 | $15.60 |
| 09-22 12:54 | Will Split be the most played map at VALORANT Champions 2026? | SELL | 0.081 | $1.62 |
| 09-22 12:14 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.05 |
| 09-22 12:14 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.63 | $5.04 |
| 09-22 12:02 | Will “I Can't Love You Anymore” by Ella Langley and Morgan Wallen win Musical Event of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 09-22 12:01 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.803 | $8.03 |
| 09-22 11:52 | Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 09-22 11:37 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $166 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 09-22 11:25 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 24? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.24 |
| 09-22 11:25 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |