SebW
0xf2f2df41cd3ff33147e622869ac052ce5ad2d1f0
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $57.0k
- Markets traded
- 1,023
- Open portfolio
- $58.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,023
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$181.91at 0.110Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
- +$55.54at 0.360Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?
- +$55.38at 0.223Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
- +$49.04at 0.280Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
- +$31.36at 0.060Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 01:41 | Will "Widow's Bay" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.398004002 | $7.96 |
| 08-03 01:30 | Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | SELL | 0.59 | $11.80 |
| 08-03 01:15 | Will "Beef" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? | SELL | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 08-03 00:50 | Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 08-03 00:30 | Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain? | SELL | 0.51 | $10.20 |
| 08-02 23:27 | Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title? | SELL | 0.26 | $5.20 |
| 08-02 22:55 | Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m? | SELL | 0.49 | $9.80 |
| 08-02 21:53 | Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | SELL | 0.32 | $0.49 |
| 08-02 21:32 | Government shutdown by October 1? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 08-02 20:52 | Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu Win the 2026 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz Tournament | SELL | 0.23 | $0.46 |
| 08-02 20:37 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $3.06 |
| 08-02 20:01 | Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $575B by August 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 08-02 19:43 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.85 |
| 08-02 17:54 | Will JavierLoL Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (High Elo) | SELL | 0.69 | $27.60 |
| 08-02 17:39 | Will Steph Curry's next team be Golden State Warriors? | SELL | 0.045 | $0.45 |