0xf2ab6d6d579b12c4d06d0854f829aa1db131c70a
0xf2ab6d6d579b12c4d06d0854f829aa1db131c70a
- Realised P&L
- $19.75
- Volume
- $473.72
- Markets traded
- 169
- Open portfolio
- $5.94
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded169
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.970 | $2.55 | +$1.55 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.775 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? · Down | 0.690 | 0.690 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.065 | $0.15 | −$0.85 |
| Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? · No | 0.310 | 0.025 | $0.08 | −$0.92 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.19at 0.270Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
- +$5.28at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$5.03at 0.319Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$4.87at 0.320US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.64at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:57 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 19:56 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 17? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:07 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 15:01 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 07:00 | Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 23:00 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 14:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 06:57 | Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 22:57 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:37 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:37 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:24 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:19 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:05 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:20 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |