Paulinjo001
0xf2a9fe128b0420c83facc86abfad6a3fc63efdb6
- Realised P&L
- $-240.43
- Volume
- $125.7k
- Markets traded
- 688
- Open portfolio
- $155.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded688
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.685 | $84.57 | −$15.43 |
| Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.845 | 0.685 | $56.74 | −$13.26 |
| Halle Berry as Storm? · No | 0.800 | 0.745 | $13.97 | −$1.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$497.85at 0.748Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24?
- +$301.14at 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23?
- +$226.39at 0.729Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
- +$212.24at 0.745Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
- +$205.51at 0.745Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 20:23 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 20:22 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 18:09 | Halle Berry as Storm? | BUY | 0.8 | $15.00 |
| 08-20 09:00 | Will valve announce no hero as the new hero at The International 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $31.52 |
| 08-20 09:00 | Will valve announce no hero as the new hero at The International 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $10.12 |
| 08-18 12:20 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? | SELL | 0.7592189189 | $280.91 |
| 08-17 16:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $12.22 |
| 08-17 16:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | BUY | 0.8099999854 | $10.00 |
| 08-14 21:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 08-13 09:30 | Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8450504183 | $70.00 |
| 08-13 09:29 | Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $100.00 |
| 08-10 04:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | BUY | 0.99 | $400.00 |
| 08-10 04:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | BUY | 0.9699999996 | $50.00 |
| 08-10 04:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | BUY | 0.9097270813 | $30.00 |
| 08-10 04:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | BUY | 0.88 | $15.00 |