PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xf25eecbd0d710263e8713ef02aa4e46707a6129c

Realised P&L
$10.78
Volume
$640.00
Markets traded
16
Open portfolio
$86.14

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
BlockerMarkets traded16
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.5000.795$19.88+$7.38
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.8280.895$17.90+$1.34
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.5280.909$10.91+$4.57
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No0.9700.971$9.71+$0.01
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.8000.935$5.61+$0.81
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1750.105$5.57$3.73
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.935$4.67+$0.07
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.8800.905$4.53+$0.13
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.1260.075$2.85$1.94
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2400.095$1.90$2.90
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No0.2560.134$1.07$0.98
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2100.065$1.04$2.32
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1900.085$0.51$0.63

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-12 16:21Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.08$1.44
07-06 19:33China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.92$4.60
07-04 16:51Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.9$7.20
06-29 05:38Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.19$1.14
06-22 11:32Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.528$6.34
06-17 18:35Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.88$4.40
06-15 09:51Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.17$2.55
06-12 23:10Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.17$2.21
06-09 02:07Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.14$1.54
06-06 01:24Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.97$9.70
06-04 03:51Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.24$4.80
05-25 21:04Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.19$1.90
05-21 04:51Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.16$2.56
04-24 16:55Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.8$8.80
04-24 16:55Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.21$5.67