0xf25eecbd0d710263e8713ef02aa4e46707a6129c
- Realised P&L
- $10.78
- Volume
- $640.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $86.14
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.64at 0.500Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$13.33at 0.500Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
- +$1.96at 0.600Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
- +$0.72at 0.400U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- +$0.48at 0.744Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 16:21 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.44 |
| 07-06 19:33 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $4.60 |
| 07-04 16:51 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 06-29 05:38 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.14 |
| 06-22 11:32 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.528 | $6.34 |
| 06-17 18:35 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $4.40 |
| 06-15 09:51 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.55 |
| 06-12 23:10 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.21 |
| 06-09 02:07 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.54 |
| 06-06 01:24 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.97 | $9.70 |
| 06-04 03:51 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 05-25 21:04 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 05-21 04:51 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.56 |
| 04-24 16:55 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $8.80 |
| 04-24 16:55 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $5.67 |