charlesswanson
0xf25d5dc869906c1c497445b4c78a4390c9de71d0
- Realised P&L
- $3.24
- Volume
- $11.1k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $13.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win the 2026 Japan Series? · No | 0.670 | 0.595 | $13.49 | −$1.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.04at 0.290Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
- +$29.77at 0.550Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
- +$10.06at 0.998Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
- +$7.01at 0.740Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- +$0.37at 0.300Yoon arrested by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:47 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.20 |
| 01-30 16:04 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999000001 | $5.00 |
| 01-30 15:34 | Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9974533809 | $19.00 |
| 01-30 14:09 | Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.07 |
| 01-30 12:20 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $14.41 |
| 12-30 10:46 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999218 | $8.34 |
| 12-30 01:42 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979997975 | $4.75 |
| 12-30 01:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.74 |
| 12-29 23:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999719 | $23.29 |
| 12-29 20:44 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999912 | $30.70 |
| 10-31 00:10 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.997 | $21.80 |
| 10-30 23:10 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.9929999855 | $17.95 |
| 10-30 18:50 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.96 |
| 09-29 11:26 | Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.21 |
| 09-29 02:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $10.06 |