PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xf257Abb1F801E94F1f56A7cA91b2294ccd6d9420-1775337067565

0xf257abb1f801e94f1f56a7ca91b2294ccd6d9420

Realised P&L
$-3.1k
Volume
$355.7k
Markets traded
26
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded26
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample23 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)73.9%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6650.440$528.00−$269.99
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4960.195$312.00−$481.99
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.4770.085$238.22−$1.1k
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1490.000$0.00−$193.86
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-21 10:22Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?BUY0.5$421.49
08-19 22:47Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?BUY0.4896264558$518.80
07-12 07:15US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?BUY0.9$300.60
06-20 15:40US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?SELL0.8755224151$540.58
06-20 15:33US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?BUY0.8999574468$211.49
06-20 15:33US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?BUY0.899$8.99
06-20 15:33US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?BUY0.9$80.99
06-20 15:33US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?BUY0.8996813949$254.12
06-19 17:09Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?BUY0.1$48.00
06-18 01:36US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?SELL0.35011784$175.06
06-17 22:33Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?BUY0.766$3.83
06-17 22:19Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?BUY0.775$238.56
06-17 09:53Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL0.18$155.86
06-17 09:48Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL0.0127608597$89.33
06-17 09:39US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?SELL0.001$3.17