0xf257Abb1F801E94F1f56A7cA91b2294ccd6d9420-1775337067565
0xf257abb1f801e94f1f56a7ca91b2294ccd6d9420
- Realised P&L
- $-3.1k
- Volume
- $355.7k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.440 | $528.00 | −$269.99 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.496 | 0.195 | $312.00 | −$481.99 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.477 | 0.085 | $238.22 | −$1.1k |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.149 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$193.86 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.430US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
- +$698.48at 0.760US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$662.35at 0.890US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
- +$498.00at 0.763Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$243.04at 0.306Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 10:22 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $421.49 |
| 08-19 22:47 | Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4896264558 | $518.80 |
| 07-12 07:15 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $300.60 |
| 06-20 15:40 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.8755224151 | $540.58 |
| 06-20 15:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999574468 | $211.49 |
| 06-20 15:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.899 | $8.99 |
| 06-20 15:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $80.99 |
| 06-20 15:33 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.8996813949 | $254.12 |
| 06-19 17:09 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $48.00 |
| 06-18 01:36 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.35011784 | $175.06 |
| 06-17 22:33 | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY | 0.766 | $3.83 |
| 06-17 22:19 | Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | BUY | 0.775 | $238.56 |
| 06-17 09:53 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.18 | $155.86 |
| 06-17 09:48 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0127608597 | $89.33 |
| 06-17 09:39 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $3.17 |