Marciasd
0xf256e3279588213d95b42aa059d5c4ee8c6a70cc
- Realised P&L
- $6.71
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $10.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 49.5 · Over | 0.450 | 0.455 | $10.01 | +$0.11 |
| Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) · Leicester City FC | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.80 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend · JD Gaming | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.06 |
| LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner · EDward Gaming | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.32 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.08 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 17? · No | 0.364 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$119.52at 0.500Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship?
- +$32.37at 0.500Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$29.15at 0.497Spread: Spain (-2.5)
- +$27.12at 0.532Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18?
- +$23.90at 0.500Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 03:02 | Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 49.5 | BUY | 0.45 | $9.90 |
| 08-25 12:17 | Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.6 | $13.80 |
| 08-17 09:18 | Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18? | BUY | 0.52 | $30.16 |
| 08-06 03:08 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.998 | $47.90 |
| 08-06 03:08 | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 08-06 03:07 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.34 | $21.08 |
| 07-21 11:06 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.44 | $12.06 |
| 07-10 03:27 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 July 6-12? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 07-10 03:26 | Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | SELL | 0.998 | $52.94 |
| 07-10 03:26 | Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw? | BUY | 0.7575 | $42.80 |
| 07-10 03:24 | Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.999 | $53.00 |
| 06-12 05:57 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.998 | $35.96 |
| 06-12 05:57 | Spread: Spain (-2.5) | BUY | 0.49 | $28.42 |
| 06-12 05:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $36.00 |
| 06-03 09:11 | LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.16 | $10.32 |