PolarOpposite
0xf1c3ddde45f6b76a85caefba8a27a931454195b7
- Realised P&L
- $-327.58
- Volume
- $16.8k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $22.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.019 | $22.63 | −$2.90 |
| Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) · Switzerland | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.20 |
| Spread: Austria (-1.5) · Austria | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$599.99 |
| Will Kanye West win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will Cleveland change name to "Indians" in 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.98 |
| Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) · Switzerland | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.01 |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) · Saudi Arabia | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$152.85at 0.450France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5
- +$103.27at 0.230France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5
- +$13.52at 0.845Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?
- +$6.40at 0.730Will Harris reach 60% before Trump flips her on Silver Bulletin?
- +$3.32at 0.340Spread: Norway (-2.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 06:53 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $26.40 |
| 06-30 06:53 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $23.12 |
| 06-30 06:51 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $23.70 |
| 06-25 22:05 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $12.96 |
| 06-25 22:04 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | SELL | 0.021 | $6.30 |
| 06-25 22:04 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $2.20 |
| 06-25 21:36 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $2.53 |
| 06-25 09:10 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.21 |
| 06-25 09:09 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.33 |
| 06-25 09:09 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.21 |
| 06-25 08:20 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.10 |
| 06-25 08:17 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | BUY | 0.022 | $2.20 |
| 06-25 08:11 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | SELL | 0.022 | $1.06 |
| 06-25 07:56 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | SELL | 0.022 | $1.10 |
| 06-25 07:36 | Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | SELL | 0.022 | $1.10 |