SunXiaochuan6
0xf1c0d539fbdb437b8d61409fbec07daa1900a5a2
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $174.6k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $17.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.926 | 0.945 | $15.2k | +$305.64 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.684 | 0.735 | $520.62 | +$36.16 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? · Yes | 0.974 | 0.973 | $497.92 | −$0.68 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.715 | $329.99 | +$30.00 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.772 | 0.695 | $269.83 | −$29.95 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.785 | $198.60 | −$1.26 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.590 | 0.705 | $179.23 | +$29.24 |
| Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.758 | 0.723 | $171.00 | −$8.26 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No | 0.519 | 0.732 | $69.00 | +$19.99 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.937 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$571.39at 0.909US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?
- +$465.15at 0.895US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- +$450.44at 0.920Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$441.53at 0.954US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?
- +$343.14at 0.908US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 03:01 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.4k |
| 11-02 03:01 | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $199.87 |
| 11-02 02:55 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | BUY | 0.9738363867 | $498.60 |
| 10-30 07:12 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.47 |
| 10-28 21:42 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.0k |
| 10-28 21:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.9668343197 | $1.5k |
| 10-28 21:42 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $179.99 |
| 10-26 00:47 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.95 | $301.00 |
| 10-26 00:47 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6531924024 | $299.87 |
| 10-26 00:24 | Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.9623381667 | $309.28 |
| 10-25 18:37 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | SELL | 0.71 | $319.50 |
| 10-22 20:11 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.93 | $940.00 |
| 10-22 20:08 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.88 | $800.00 |
| 10-22 19:59 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $300.00 |
| 10-20 15:55 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $3.6k |