Natstar777
0xf17cd97d0316fd7c57b38db85a35548fd8a70c29
- Realised P&L
- $4.1k
- Volume
- $305.4k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $12.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? · No | 0.854 | 0.830 | $7.9k | −$228.86 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? · Yes | 0.733 | 0.685 | $2.8k | −$197.91 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.445 | $831.42 | −$65.03 |
| Israel military action against Iraq by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.967 | $444.58 | +$48.99 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) · Yes | 0.719 | 0.550 | $113.76 | −$34.98 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 23, 2026? · No | 0.929 | 0.941 | $92.89 | +$1.17 |
| Will Angela Murray be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 9)? · No | 0.874 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.649Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.774US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.851US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$801.93at 0.564Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
- +$714.55at 0.389Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 01:59 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.46 | $356.02 |
| 09-24 01:58 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.69 | $130.87 |
| 09-23 23:01 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.71 | $264.67 |
| 09-23 22:32 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.77 | $11.42 |
| 09-23 22:32 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.76 | $15.20 |
| 09-23 22:31 | Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | BUY | 0.71 | $122.12 |
| 09-23 22:10 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | BUY | 0.8798924731 | $818.30 |
| 09-23 22:09 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.75 | $120.51 |
| 09-23 22:07 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.74 | $88.99 |
| 09-23 22:06 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | BUY | 0.7038906144 | $208.49 |
| 09-23 21:46 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.5 | $155.00 |
| 09-23 21:46 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.49 | $236.23 |
| 09-23 21:46 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $46.71 |
| 09-23 21:32 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $3.7k |
| 09-23 21:28 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |