thomasstephen
0xf14da64d1ea37fb309c4c1b073431f00bb1d8fb2
- Realised P&L
- $15.42
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $27.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration75.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Philip Brown win the 2026 Charlottetown mayoral election? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.555 | $17.61 | −$3.97 |
| Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.925 | $9.71 | +$0.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.62at 0.289Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$8.61at 0.673Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$7.55at 0.310Yoon arrested by January 31?
- +$1.12at 0.297Liverpool wins the Premier League?
- +$0.43at 0.969Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:00 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999458 | $12.32 |
| 01-30 15:30 | Will Chainlink hit $17 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.47 |
| 01-30 15:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.40 |
| 01-30 13:23 | Will Opendoor reach $10.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $56.43 |
| 12-30 18:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999751 | $4.53 |
| 12-30 15:52 | Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.34 |
| 12-30 12:53 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999657 | $9.66 |
| 12-30 00:08 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.98 |
| 12-29 23:31 | Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $21.62 |
| 12-29 20:15 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $56.45 |
| 10-30 19:42 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.67 |
| 10-30 17:43 | Will Solana reach $250 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.37 |
| 09-29 17:05 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | BUY | 0.9979999668 | $14.60 |
| 09-29 16:13 | Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999583 | $12.10 |
| 09-29 04:58 | Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999942 | $14.70 |