EthanWilson
0xf1404dcb32ff7b78818f81820e79f9452d7db8db
- Realised P&L
- $-15.64
- Volume
- $782.03
- Markets traded
- 211
- Open portfolio
- $37.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded211
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.14at 0.739Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?
- +$2.04at 0.665Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?
- +$2.03at 0.601Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on August 17?
- +$1.75at 0.635Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 17?
- +$1.49at 0.578Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 02:17 | Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.4691164239 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:12 | Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 02:11 | Will the lowest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:59 | Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:58 | Will the lowest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:54 | Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:51 | Will the lowest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:50 | Will the lowest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on September 17? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:49 | Will the lowest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on September 16? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 01:49 | Will the lowest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on September 15? | BUY | 0.0923070249 | $1.00 |