V1nch0u
0xf0f86cdb6872730ca12c84ff8b014a539b8c325f
- Realised P&L
- $-34.3k
- Volume
- $977.7k
- Markets traded
- 745
- Open portfolio
- $55.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded745
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · No | 0.886 | 0.875 | $52.1k | −$647.91 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 8? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $2.8k | +$1.38 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 8? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $204.90 | +$0.10 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 8? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $129.23 | +$0.06 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 8? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $23.95 | +$0.01 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 8? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $18.97 | +$0.00 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 8? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $18.23 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.784US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
- +$616.75at 0.831SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
- +$569.64at 0.640SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
- +$435.15at 0.915Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8?
- +$342.50at 0.922Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 01:03 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.7k |
| 08-08 00:16 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $129.16 |
| 08-07 23:07 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $64.45 |
| 08-07 23:07 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $308.35 |
| 08-07 22:59 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $184.54 |
| 08-07 22:57 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $185.70 |
| 08-07 22:55 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.22 |
| 08-07 22:47 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $178.85 |
| 08-07 22:47 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.9985558082 | $395.25 |
| 08-07 22:47 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.9981701393 | $1.1k |
| 08-07 22:45 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.9989149468 | $599.21 |
| 08-07 22:45 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.9988429487 | $311.64 |
| 08-07 22:44 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $25.01 |
| 08-07 22:23 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $66.15 |
| 08-07 22:23 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on August 7? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.64 |