PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Smickle

0xf0d8342d719250ca3656fcc9acf03e5baf5bf5e2

Realised P&L
$-2.1k
Volume
$392.3k
Markets traded
223
Open portfolio
$14.36

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded223
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration83.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)12.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 19? · No0.0160.004$8.50$29.94
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 21? · No0.0080.005$2.84$1.71
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18? · No0.0370.002$1.05$24.95
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18? · No0.0040.001$0.96$7.04
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18? · No0.0050.001$0.55$5.30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? · No0.0110.001$0.45$9.54
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? · Yes0.0310.000$0.00$10.00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? · No0.0150.000$0.00$1.11
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00$50.00
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes0.2120.000$0.00$114.34
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? · Yes0.0790.000$0.00$73.53
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00$10.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? · Yes0.2630.000$0.00$151.07
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00$40.00
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? · Yes0.2720.000$0.00$76.66

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 11:00Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 19?BUY0.0176462523$21.45
09-17 10:59Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 18?BUY0.037$26.00
09-17 10:59Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 18?BUY0.0041748811$8.00
09-17 10:58Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 21?BUY0.008$4.55
09-17 10:57Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 17?BUY0.01$6.42
09-17 10:56Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 19?BUY0.014$17.00
09-17 10:53Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 18?BUY0.0053343465$5.85
09-17 10:52Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?BUY0.011$10.00
07-29 07:44Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2119999988$114.34
07-29 07:02Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.004$8.00
07-03 08:12Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July?BUY0.0121923792$50.00
07-03 08:12Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?BUY0.0166568681$40.00
07-03 08:10Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?BUY0.0310880078$50.00
07-03 08:10Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?BUY0.0599999989$50.00
07-03 08:09Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?BUY0.1099999982$50.00