jiangdesha
0xf0cf1935338fb336b2cacdcd42a224867ac31754
- Realised P&L
- $-5.63
- Volume
- $8.2k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $16.05
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.996 | $16.05 | −$0.05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$475.58 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.78at 0.750Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
- +$48.13at 0.750Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 7?
- +$47.65at 0.750Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24?
- +$4.16at 0.958Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 19?
- +$2.34at 0.974Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-10 11:52 | Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150? | BUY | 0.9989999452 | $16.10 |
| 08-28 11:49 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.10 |
| 07-24 09:00 | Trump out as President by July 31? | BUY | 0.9979999455 | $16.00 |
| 06-05 08:51 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $95.00 |
| 05-28 08:19 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999904 | $94.00 |
| 05-25 06:27 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999904 | $94.00 |
| 05-17 08:19 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-14 11:07 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $40.00 |
| 05-14 10:53 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 05-14 10:52 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14? | BUY | 0.9989999821 | $53.00 |
| 05-10 06:34 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $95.00 |
| 05-10 06:34 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.00 |
| 05-10 06:34 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.15 |
| 05-05 08:30 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.00 |
| 04-24 01:21 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $95.03 |