0xf0b29b5cf68c19ffaaa0c961326d5409b0a7b501
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $91.4k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.514Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
- +$2.8kat 0.645Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
- +$2.4kat 0.236Will Spain win the World Cup?
- +$1.6kat 0.277Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?
- +$1.3kat 0.256Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 03:45 | Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election by a margin of 0-2%? | BUY | 0.1799999995 | $28.00 |
| 09-12 16:13 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | BUY | 0.7188902681 | $100.00 |
| 09-12 16:12 | Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.4030378475 | $1.0k |
| 09-12 16:11 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.8889679083 | $200.00 |
| 09-12 16:11 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.5372478448 | $1000.00 |
| 09-12 16:10 | Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? | BUY | 0.4127045044 | $108.00 |
| 09-06 22:35 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.9963177739 | $8.2k |
| 07-19 22:18 | Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.6296095745 | $5.2k |
| 07-19 22:09 | Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.3k |
| 07-19 22:09 | Will Spain win the World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.1k |
| 07-12 08:30 | Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.2649491785 | $605.00 |
| 07-12 08:29 | Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | SELL | 0.44 | $657.17 |
| 07-12 06:12 | Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.5499999972 | $30.00 |
| 07-12 06:11 | Will Spain win the World Cup? | BUY | 0.225248104 | $705.00 |
| 07-07 18:01 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.5k |