Trismegistos
0xf0b11d09c9e1f783fca23bd5d2f7c1523ae590f6
- Realised P&L
- $-270.36
- Volume
- $25.1k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $16.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama federally charged before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.048 | $9.52 | −$12.48 |
| Obama arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.033 | $6.56 | −$15.44 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? · No | 0.829 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.65 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET · Down | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? · 150k | 0.179 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.59 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.285 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.26 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$221.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET · Up | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.98 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 January 5-11? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.43 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.87at 0.460Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
- +$4.95at 0.304Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
- +$4.23at 0.566Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?
- +$3.41at 0.277Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?
- +$2.72at 0.492Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-27 20:41 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.17 | $221.00 |
| 02-02 20:48 | Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.878 | $4.65 |
| 02-02 20:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $2.38 |
| 02-02 20:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $0.66 |
| 02-02 20:48 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.944 | $4.99 |
| 02-02 20:48 | Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.949 | $5.02 |
| 02-02 20:48 | Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? | SELL | 0.953 | $5.01 |
| 02-02 20:47 | Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? | SELL | 0.95 | $5.00 |
| 02-02 20:47 | Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.965 | $5.08 |
| 02-02 20:47 | Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Serie A league? | SELL | 0.957 | $5.03 |
| 02-02 20:47 | Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | SELL | 0.974 | $5.12 |
| 01-15 01:25 | Obama federally charged before 2027? | BUY | 0.1097871885 | $22.00 |
| 01-15 01:24 | Obama arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.1106302194 | $22.00 |
| 01-12 16:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.49 | $1.37 |
| 01-12 16:45 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.90 |