pikachu6683
0xf097b08b535b68311bb233c66251287bc3a7b974
- Realised P&L
- $12.8k
- Volume
- $6.28M
- Markets traded
- 1,421
- Open portfolio
- $663.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,421
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration44.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.878 | 0.814 | $663.36 | −$52.23 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.5kat 0.313Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2?
- +$8.2kat 0.193Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21?
- +$8.2kat 0.123Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20?
- +$5.9kat 0.001Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19?
- +$5.5kat 0.267Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 17:02 | Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $100.00 |
| 07-23 02:08 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $0.07 |
| 06-17 18:57 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | SELL | 0.06 | $60.00 |
| 06-17 18:16 | Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |
| 06-15 18:28 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $76.00 |
| 06-15 18:28 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $162.64 |
| 06-15 17:59 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.233 | $88.54 |
| 06-15 17:59 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.232 | $21.34 |
| 06-15 17:59 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2310209346 | $24.72 |
| 06-15 17:57 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $475.96 |
| 06-15 15:40 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 06-15 15:16 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $47.25 |
| 06-15 15:15 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $52.50 |
| 06-15 01:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.938 | $1.0k |
| 06-12 16:20 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.939 | $751.20 |