MainMan1
0xf0974150094b97e72c9e85ed93a1541fa64259a4
- Realised P&L
- $-114.23
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $6.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Databricks IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.037 | $6.25 | −$43.75 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 23? · No | 0.744 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.76 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.12 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22? · No | 0.598 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.91 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 22? · No | 0.709 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$60.00at 0.600Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$45.15at 0.100Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$18.47at 0.731Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 23?
- +$15.60at 0.150Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
- +$10.91at 0.735Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-03 20:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.15 |
| 04-24 06:15 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.99 |
| 04-24 06:03 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 24? | BUY | 0.989 | $9.99 |
| 04-24 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 24? | BUY | 0.961 | $4.96 |
| 04-24 05:02 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.99 |
| 04-24 04:55 | Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 24? | SELL | 0.907848249 | $4.67 |
| 04-24 04:55 | Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 24? | SELL | 0.9367938931 | $4.91 |
| 04-24 04:14 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.987 | $4.99 |
| 04-24 04:02 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 24? | BUY | 0.988 | $4.99 |
| 04-24 04:02 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 24? | BUY | 0.987 | $4.99 |
| 04-24 03:02 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.979 | $4.98 |
| 04-24 01:21 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.99 |
| 04-24 01:18 | Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.977 | $4.98 |
| 04-23 23:03 | Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.97 |
| 04-23 23:03 | Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on April 24? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.98 |