Tourte-chaude
0xf08c827f8bccc70f51686be5538611fa696a91e9
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $237.3k
- Markets traded
- 894
- Open portfolio
- $249.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded894
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.479 | 0.664 | $132.90 | +$37.10 |
| Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.440 | 0.485 | $56.29 | +$5.22 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · Mbappé | 0.400 | 0.475 | $47.50 | +$7.50 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.275 | $12.88 | +$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.173GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.197Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.034Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.202Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$914.94at 0.237GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 01:03 | Will Jude Bellingham finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.44 | $51.07 |
| 10-05 11:22 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.479 | $95.80 |
| 09-30 20:38 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.025 | $16.38 |
| 09-30 20:37 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0239512171 | $4.91 |
| 09-30 20:21 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.024 | $36.67 |
| 09-30 20:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.036 | $28.08 |
| 09-30 20:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.05375 | $2.15 |
| 09-30 20:20 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.051 | $5.61 |
| 09-30 06:56 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1197425997 | $13.96 |
| 09-30 06:54 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.094 | $15.04 |
| 09-30 06:54 | Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0939047528 | $9.86 |
| 09-29 21:47 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.047 | $1.41 |
| 09-29 19:08 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.058 | $7.08 |
| 09-29 18:49 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.057 | $3.88 |
| 09-29 18:19 | Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $12.17 |