EsliEs
0xf06b66751f8e639475704243a991bbe14072f629
- Realised P&L
- $-553.96
- Volume
- $34.4k
- Markets traded
- 517
- Open portfolio
- $10.65
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded517
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 18? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.435 | $8.70 | −$5.10 |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.065 | $1.95 | −$0.45 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner · T1 | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.52at 0.725Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
- +$50.93at 0.406Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 8?
- +$49.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
- +$46.00at 0.428Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?
- +$31.48at 0.290Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 08:49 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 18? | SELL | 0.42 | $6.30 |
| 10-13 07:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 18? | SELL | 0.48 | $2.40 |
| 10-05 13:35 | Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.80 |
| 09-12 09:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 13? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-09 17:23 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.13801 | $5.52 |
| 09-09 17:23 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.16 | $6.40 |
| 09-07 12:45 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on September 8? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.00 |
| 09-04 08:50 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on September 4? | SELL | 0.995 | $39.80 |
| 09-03 17:04 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.55 | $13.75 |
| 09-03 12:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 4? | BUY | 0.41 | $6.15 |
| 09-03 12:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on September 4? | BUY | 0.45 | $6.75 |
| 08-28 16:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | BUY | 0.109 | $1.09 |
| 08-27 11:46 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.203 | $4.06 |
| 08-27 11:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August? | SELL | 0.205 | $1.02 |
| 08-26 18:24 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August? | BUY | 0.292 | $5.84 |