0xf06a9018b9a7fb942903314725673cb25c46c80d
- Realised P&L
- $-15.48
- Volume
- $734.00
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $21.05
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.760 | 0.905 | $7.24 | +$1.16 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No | 0.964 | 0.971 | $5.83 | +$0.04 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.065 | $1.75 | −$1.30 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.075 | $1.57 | −$1.36 |
| Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.165 | $1.49 | +$0.04 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.064 | $1.02 | −$5.86 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.085 | $0.77 | −$0.67 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.055 | $0.71 | −$1.24 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.095 | $0.67 | −$1.01 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.82at 0.097Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$1.14at 0.500Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.80at 0.160U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.02at 0.054Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 07:27 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.055 | $1.21 |
| 07-04 15:06 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.964 | $5.78 |
| 06-24 04:06 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.95 |
| 06-21 14:26 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.80 |
| 06-15 18:35 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.065 | $1.30 |
| 06-13 04:50 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.44 |
| 06-08 09:42 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.94 |
| 06-04 04:21 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.68 |
| 06-01 19:32 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $6.08 |
| 06-01 19:32 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.076 | $1.44 |
| 05-26 04:04 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $3.35 |
| 04-22 04:14 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 04-22 04:14 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |
| 04-22 04:14 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | BUY | 0.054 | $1.08 |
| 04-22 04:14 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |