HEOS
0xf04ea0647ed574f74678e620b1e5e950e2ec22de
- Realised P&L
- $-362.23
- Volume
- $16.4k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $402.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.483 | 0.385 | $285.64 | −$73.14 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.198 | $116.94 | −$25.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$406.19at 0.290Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$83.34at 0.791Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?
- +$43.16at 0.945Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
- +$39.90at 0.915Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?
- +$29.75at 0.846Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-05 17:17 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.4835801836 | $358.78 |
| 06-05 17:16 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.2398231389 | $142.00 |
| 06-05 16:53 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $368.00 |
| 04-20 19:55 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.041 | $14.35 |
| 04-19 22:33 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.8453391889 | $316.64 |
| 04-12 19:41 | Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | BUY | 0.91 | $178.67 |
| 04-12 19:19 | Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | BUY | 0.9187762265 | $248.38 |
| 03-14 20:44 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.51 | $178.50 |
| 02-28 21:02 | Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.994 | $606.79 |
| 02-28 20:20 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.9631198628 | $581.19 |
| 01-25 20:31 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $25.60 |
| 01-23 17:30 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999989 | $168.26 |
| 01-23 17:21 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $168.27 |
| 01-23 17:18 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $59.79 |
| 01-23 17:17 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2899999992 | $175.00 |