PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xf038e075c8645636E69DC3c79d4378FE74bA29F6-1778589286577

0xf038e075c8645636e69dc3c79d4378fe74ba29f6

Realised P&L
$-68.92
Volume
$3.9k
Markets traded
69
Open portfolio
$0.76

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded69
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration64.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0410.020$0.49−$0.51
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0900.025$0.27−$0.73
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.2800.000$0.00−$1.00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? · No0.4900.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET · Down0.1000.000$0.00−$5.55
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? · Yes0.0310.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET · Up0.6300.000$0.00−$5.00
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0940.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00−$1.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET · Up0.8330.000$0.00−$5.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET · Down0.4380.000$0.00−$10.00
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 2? · Under0.4600.000$0.00−$4.30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET · Up0.5400.000$0.00−$5.00
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch · Martin Krumich0.1300.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-20 04:21Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.125$1.11
06-20 04:21Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.43$1.19
06-07 07:22Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETSELL0.28$3.41
06-07 07:21Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETBUY0.4099999836$5.00
06-07 07:20US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?SELL0.43$1.19
06-07 07:20Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?SELL0.1740056022$1.24
06-07 07:20Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?SELL0.07$1.17
06-05 03:59Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ETSELL0.14$3.68
06-05 03:58Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ETBUY0.1899999726$5.00
06-04 10:02US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?BUY0.4899998285$1.00
06-04 10:02US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2799998432$1.00
06-04 10:02US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?BUY0.3599998704$1.00
06-03 10:16Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETSELL0.19$2.88
06-03 10:16Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETBUY0.3299999591$5.00
06-02 06:05Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?BUY0.1399998824$1.00