Mugatu-eth
0xeff07c97c491e11e6ab7a6f4520e61f8fa5c1210
- Realised P&L
- $-4.8k
- Volume
- $1.36M
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $5.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration83.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.033 | $5.8k | +$443.26 |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? · No | 0.071 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$755.57 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.362 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$299.45 |
| Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.358 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$315.72 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$718.49 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.481 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.2k |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$605.90 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? · No | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.6kat 0.210US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.750Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$489.20at 0.811Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
- +$427.60at 0.035Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$402.77at 0.838Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 03:18 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0342312037 | $27.15 |
| 07-29 03:17 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0329773345 | $2.9k |
| 07-22 04:30 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.4807655791 | $4.2k |
| 07-10 05:15 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0589999885 | $4.60 |
| 07-09 21:59 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.059 | $713.90 |
| 07-09 13:29 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0299999999 | $483.14 |
| 07-09 13:07 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0299999998 | $122.78 |
| 06-04 18:24 | Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.357723288 | $315.72 |
| 06-03 14:19 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $338.13 |
| 06-03 03:38 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $70.50 |
| 06-03 03:37 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $200.00 |
| 04-08 20:52 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.363726473 | $300.52 |
| 04-08 09:38 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0588357359 | $300.51 |
| 04-02 00:54 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1820266307 | $220.65 |
| 04-02 00:41 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1638131984 | $212.71 |