PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xefcedda09b4f2224c856edbd9c41c1d6db124e4a

Realised P&L
$-76.3k
Volume
$7.38M
Markets traded
3,668
Open portfolio
$18.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded3,668
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration8.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No0.6410.875$1.5k+$409.87
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes0.6300.750$1.4k+$228.57
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? · No0.7500.880$1.4k+$208.02
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.7300.855$1.4k+$205.48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.7390.840$1.4k+$163.19
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.8400.920$1.3k+$115.00
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.9100.983$1.3k+$96.26
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.8400.865$1.2k+$35.71
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No0.4900.900$1.2k+$547.30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes0.6700.665$1.2k$8.96
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.6500.665$1.2k+$26.44
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · No0.7600.935$922.70+$172.70
Iran leadership change by August 31? · No0.8901.000$853.15+$93.85
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · Yes0.9600.982$776.41+$17.01
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed? · Yes0.2400.255$338.19+$19.89

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-11 07:03US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?SELL0.59$49.16
09-11 06:44US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?SELL0.78$41.11
09-11 00:46US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?SELL0.35$46.30
09-10 20:46US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?BUY0.4175675041$17.78
09-10 13:50Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.75$4.49
09-10 13:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.75$32.56
09-10 06:21Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.75$0.71
09-09 11:57Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?SELL0.3$4.37
09-09 11:51Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?SELL0.29$2.90
09-09 09:36Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?SELL0.24$0.35
09-09 09:35Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?SELL0.24$0.54
09-09 07:28Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.75$1.1k
09-09 07:05US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?SELL0.52$1.3k
09-09 06:49Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?SELL0.24$5.56
09-09 06:49Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?SELL0.24$0.30