SecondChanceAtLife
0xefb7c200ca8f21ade87cd7b657035f1c00e73647
- Realised P&L
- $-261.81
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Markets traded
- 341
- Open portfolio
- $92.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded341
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Map Handicap: LG (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) · Luminosity | 0.410 | 0.405 | $40.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? · Yes | 0.474 | 0.485 | $29.21 | +$0.66 |
| Will “Bring Your Love” by Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter win Best Collaboration at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.335 | $20.85 | +$5.29 |
| Will “SS26” by Charli XCX win Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.010 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will “House Tour” by Sabrina Carpenter win Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.005 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will “Nobody's Girl” by Tate McRae win Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.001 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$451.32at 0.428Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?
- +$354.95at 0.382Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
- +$44.49at 0.573Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
- +$39.51at 0.300Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during Board of Peace events on February 19?
- +$25.25at 0.507Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 07:07 | Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m? | BUY | 0.47 | $17.08 |
| 09-22 12:06 | Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs Luminosity (+1.5) | BUY | 0.359999999 | $14.00 |
| 09-22 11:47 | Will “SS26” by Charli XCX win Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 11:47 | Will “House Tour” by Sabrina Carpenter win Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 11:46 | Will “Nobody's Girl” by Tate McRae win Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | BUY | 0.0062584881 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 02:31 | Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3424999909 | $18.00 |
| 07-12 02:30 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.1550000025 | $10.00 |
| 07-12 02:30 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.2999999925 | $20.00 |
| 04-05 22:21 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | BUY | 0.5797782944 | $4.08 |
| 04-05 22:21 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | SELL | 0.424 | $4.07 |
| 04-05 15:56 | Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | BUY | 0.5189999794 | $4.99 |
| 04-03 06:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6051187536 | $31.85 |
| 04-03 06:20 | Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | SELL | 0.1372899952 | $14.20 |
| 03-31 04:26 | Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.1359999921 | $14.07 |
| 03-31 04:25 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.39 | $14.08 |