PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xefb70577dc01cee93601053a2d18d419827a0870

Realised P&L
not known
Volume
not known
Markets traded
36
Open portfolio
$42.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

Not knownEdge per dollar—
No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
ClearMarkets traded36
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration71.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample23 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)91.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.7020.725$22.0k+$700.26
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? · Yes0.3720.355$8.2k−$385.13
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · Yes0.7730.795$4.0k+$110.01
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.7300.725$3.6k−$25.00
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? · No0.7200.695$3.0k−$108.62
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? · Yes0.0850.086$719.21+$12.47
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.2700.265$430.79−$8.13
Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? · Yes0.0100.009$130.88−$6.89
Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? · Yes0.0230.022$40.87−$0.91
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? · No0.3970.358$15.77−$1.69
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? · Yes0.0350.036$11.83+$0.33
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? · Yes0.0100.009$9.96−$0.52
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? · Yes0.0700.070$9.26+$0.00
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas? · Yes0.0070.003$6.41−$12.59

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 03:51Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?SELL0.08$23.76
11-02 03:51Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?SELL0.0807725731$334.56
11-02 03:38Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?SELL0.01$0.56
11-01 07:08Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?SELL0.2$1.9k
11-01 06:21NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?BUY0.999$328.67
11-01 04:42Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out by October 31?BUY0.9939275795$199.69
11-01 04:40NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?BUY0.999$819.17
11-01 04:16Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9982696363$740.46
11-01 04:11US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?BUY0.9976996357$1.9k
11-01 03:31US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.999$436.35
11-01 02:40US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9986377245$2.8k
11-01 00:59U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?SELL0.8$134.40
11-01 00:50Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?BUY0.998356805$972.91
11-01 00:44U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.5756652174$39.72
11-01 00:44U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?BUY0.57$338.07