mgrtad
0xefb133e73c55de31da3afc84275b41111e6dd4c3
- Realised P&L
- $20.67
- Volume
- $47.1k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $12.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample49 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 17? · Yes | 0.993 | 0.993 | $12.91 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.833Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26?
- +$1.8kat 0.749Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23?
- +$1.8kat 0.873Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 25?
- +$137.53at 0.857Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 26?
- +$11.01at 0.959Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 01:03 | Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | SELL | 0.755 | $3.08 |
| 08-14 03:47 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.97 | $2.97 |
| 07-23 03:36 | Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? | SELL | 0.948 | $4.11 |
| 06-12 00:03 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $4.73 |
| 06-12 00:03 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.848 | $2.63 |
| 06-12 00:03 | Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.823 | $5.66 |
| 06-12 00:03 | Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.56 |
| 05-26 13:08 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $2.06 |
| 05-14 13:31 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.9299999962 | $4.90 |
| 05-13 17:36 | Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? | BUY | 0.9789999953 | $4.00 |
| 04-20 13:15 | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY | 0.9399999906 | $4.00 |
| 04-18 11:16 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | BUY | 0.9819999938 | $2.20 |
| 04-17 23:13 | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9329999589 | $4.22 |
| 04-16 18:20 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9619999853 | $5.76 |
| 04-12 08:55 | Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9789999977 | $3.00 |