0xefa96a94df488842eb02eb48982c9cf0e16db123
0xefa96a94df488842eb02eb48982c9cf0e16db123
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $61.5k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $52.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.647 | 0.555 | $52.72 | −$8.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$314.38at 0.307Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$182.15at 0.195Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get less than 10 million views on day 1?
- +$72.60at 0.240Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-08-16?
- +$58.45at 0.595Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?
- +$42.86at 0.810Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 07:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6475670157 | $61.51 |
| 09-28 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.456058074 | $87.33 |
| 09-28 02:35 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999983 | $120.63 |
| 09-28 02:34 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $125.65 |
| 09-28 01:51 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.629999999 | $127.68 |
| 09-28 01:50 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $133.70 |
| 09-28 01:31 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.5009180319 | $133.95 |
| 09-28 01:26 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.4389038993 | $142.95 |
| 09-27 16:41 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7496582693 | $244.16 |
| 09-27 10:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.6965721092 | $254.40 |
| 09-27 10:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.7030586743 | $256.77 |
| 09-26 08:10 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.9513121001 | $304.81 |
| 09-25 16:17 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7984395116 | $255.83 |
| 09-25 04:54 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.0546960984 | $54.56 |
| 09-23 09:07 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $23.89 |