4gacad6eklxi
0xef9edf2b96c688a69c83c0c84bdb129a6335150c
- Realised P&L
- $-279.39
- Volume
- $21.1k
- Markets traded
- 3,436
- Open portfolio
- $52.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,436
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.510 | 0.405 | $34.94 | −$9.06 |
| Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.725 | 0.475 | $7.86 | −$4.14 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.805 | 0.600 | $3.80 | −$1.30 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.915 | 0.952 | $2.08 | +$0.08 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.115 | $1.88 | −$2.12 |
| Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.325 | $1.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.070 | $0.96 | −$1.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.65at 0.112Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$23.33at 0.300Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$20.18at 0.090Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
- +$12.68at 0.283Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
- +$12.39at 0.474US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:42 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.22 |
| 09-15 09:31 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.2011975884 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 06:51 | Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 18:41 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 09:13 | Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? | SELL | 0.903 | $2.06 |
| 09-11 07:54 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.58 |
| 09-11 07:00 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.3 | $0.02 |
| 09-11 06:41 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 06:41 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | SELL | 0.28 | $1.26 |
| 09-10 06:39 | Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 09-06 16:03 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.85 |
| 09-06 08:06 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | BUY | 0.0909090909 | $1.00 |
| 09-06 07:42 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.03 |
| 09-06 07:38 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | BUY | 0.14999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-05 11:51 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $2.57 |