VytautasBaltus
0xef95cdd35380cf086793e9af30b1e08a125588c0
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $95.1k
- Markets traded
- 122
- Open portfolio
- $11.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded122
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.855 | $8.6k | +$2.2k |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.324 | 0.226 | $3.2k | −$1.4k |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.170 | $35.53 | −$64.79 |
| Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$570.65at 0.219Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?
- +$463.14at 0.346Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$361.10at 0.549Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?
- +$297.36at 0.327Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
- +$85.82at 0.373Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-26 10:01 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.365 | $10.95 |
| 07-26 10:00 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $175.26 |
| 07-25 08:02 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.331 | $208.70 |
| 07-24 18:59 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.34 | $230.94 |
| 07-24 15:09 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.3489687579 | $663.04 |
| 07-24 11:47 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $252.87 |
| 07-24 11:46 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.3644230219 | $1.3k |
| 07-24 07:17 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7084950808 | $58.33 |
| 07-24 07:16 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.368 | $1.5k |
| 07-24 00:26 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6687681187 | $293.00 |
| 07-07 21:24 | Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $11.38 |
| 07-07 21:13 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 13? | BUY | 0.014 | $0.57 |
| 07-06 22:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 12? | BUY | 0.0288656716 | $0.31 |
| 07-05 22:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 11? | BUY | 0.0155400155 | $1.00 |
| 07-05 19:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 11? | BUY | 0.025 | $1.00 |