0xef93C69D7ABd9db3246896F4b898C4DbFcb4f3c8-1754652330460
0xef93c69d7abd9db3246896f4b898c4dbfcb4f3c8
- Realised P&L
- $-14.13
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 130
- Open portfolio
- $4.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded130
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.640 | 0.625 | $1.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.345 | $1.50 | −$0.50 |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.955 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.175 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.34 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.450Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
- +$5.20at 0.490Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?
- +$3.39at 0.600Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
- +$2.97at 0.349Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.500Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 19:18 | Will the chopsticks catch the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 19:18 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999034 | $2.00 |
| 09-29 19:10 | Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.57 |
| 09-29 19:09 | Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $2.27 |
| 09-29 17:24 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $4.50 |
| 09-28 23:12 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 09-28 13:37 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $5.55 |
| 09-28 13:37 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.83 |
| 09-26 22:17 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? | BUY | 0.988 | $5.50 |
| 09-26 22:16 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | SELL | 0.138 | $0.69 |
| 09-25 16:43 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-25 16:42 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.8289999745 | $4.00 |
| 09-25 03:20 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | BUY | 0.1989999853 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 02:54 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | SELL | 0.805 | $2.29 |
| 09-24 02:53 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |