lyx1991
0xef4975ef415118231270a4d6a6724dce3b9e447c
- Realised P&L
- $-24.49
- Volume
- $11.7k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $73.10
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $23.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will Newt Gingrich attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.961 | 0.877 | $17.55 | −$1.67 |
| Saudi troops enter Taiz Governorate by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.855 | $17.10 | +$0.10 |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.455 | $9.10 | −$4.50 |
| Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.305 | $6.10 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.81at 0.710Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$3.00at 0.090Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.86at 0.235Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.55at 0.530Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$0.24at 0.360WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 18:30 | Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | SELL | 0.22 | $44.00 |
| 10-02 14:27 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $71.63 |
| 10-02 14:26 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $7.30 |
| 10-02 10:29 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | SELL | 0.13 | $26.00 |
| 10-02 06:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.58311 | $116.62 |
| 10-02 06:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.58301 | $58.30 |
| 10-02 06:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.584 | $26.86 |
| 10-02 03:51 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.241 | $0.14 |
| 10-02 01:37 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.25 | $6.00 |
| 10-02 01:37 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.25 | $4.86 |
| 10-01 09:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.63 | $57.41 |
| 10-01 09:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.64 | $21.76 |
| 10-01 09:03 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.64 | $22.40 |
| 10-01 08:59 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.64 | $256.00 |
| 09-30 14:20 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.523 | $49.85 |