liufuyuan
0xef0fa0a64f025b1b3c0a74e365dcbb486279e1ec
- Realised P&L
- $-10.91
- Volume
- $10.2k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $16.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by September 30? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $14.29 | −$0.01 |
| Harvard vs. Brown · Harvard | 0.820 | 0.825 | $2.48 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,200 on October 24? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 13-19? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
| Will Solana reach $120 in February? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Emmett vs. Zalal · Emmett | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 12? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on December 17? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.17at 0.760North Carolina vs. California
- +$1.00at 0.990Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28?
- +$1.00at 0.990Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4?
- +$0.64at 0.979Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 11–18?
- +$0.19at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 13:05 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.9989999521 | $14.30 |
| 09-25 13:01 | Harvard vs. Brown | BUY | 0.82 | $2.46 |
| 08-01 04:25 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.998 | $16.70 |
| 06-07 12:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? | BUY | 0.9989999896 | $88.00 |
| 05-28 06:21 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 05-22 13:01 | Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 05-17 07:55 | Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m? | BUY | 0.998 | $88.00 |
| 05-12 10:49 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? | BUY | 0.9989999896 | $88.00 |
| 05-07 09:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 05-03 09:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $88.00 |
| 04-26 03:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 26? | BUY | 0.999 | $87.99 |
| 04-22 12:15 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $86.99 |
| 04-17 12:49 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $86.98 |
| 04-14 06:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? | BUY | 0.998 | $86.97 |
| 04-09 11:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $86.99 |