0x687ebed4d80378adb46d41af35f0bb6bef27fbe0
0xee6a1c566338d27c088369140c009d4e59a79f05
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $32.3k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $16.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.141 | 0.024 | $16.69 | −$83.30 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.99 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.152 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$355.67at 0.606Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$212.40at 0.660US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$212.25at 0.485Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
- +$165.70at 0.430Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
- +$146.72at 0.720Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 21:19 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.3040834725 | $47.36 |
| 07-15 21:17 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5799999942 | $30.00 |
| 07-07 20:04 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL | 0.998 | $526.71 |
| 06-26 21:16 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1479999977 | $47.04 |
| 06-26 21:12 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0849999985 | $50.00 |
| 06-26 21:11 | Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? | SELL | 0.1728561228 | $29.05 |
| 06-26 21:11 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $66.67 |
| 06-10 10:51 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.72 | $380.00 |
| 06-07 22:48 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $380.69 |
| 06-02 12:11 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $360.00 |
| 05-31 22:21 | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $212.14 |
| 05-31 22:21 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.994 | $258.18 |
| 05-31 17:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999987 | $100.00 |
| 05-27 13:15 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699999995 | $200.00 |
| 05-27 13:14 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999991 | $150.00 |