tonyfour1
0xee45caf6cd45eea855886ce428fbf8e2cc65eb47
- Realised P&L
- $-259.59
- Volume
- $64.8k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $29.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 19-25? · No | 0.993 | 0.991 | $11.47 | −$0.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 20? · No | 0.986 | 0.994 | $7.56 | +$0.06 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.989 | 0.998 | $6.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in October? · No | 0.991 | 0.994 | $4.01 | +$0.01 |
| Canucks vs. Predators · Predators | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$234.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.19at 0.790Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$0.73at 0.943Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 8?
- +$0.49at 0.971Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17?
- +$0.45at 0.899Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
- +$0.33at 0.997Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on November 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 07:16 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 20? | BUY | 0.9859999989 | $7.50 |
| 10-19 07:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 19-25? | BUY | 0.993 | $11.50 |
| 10-07 02:11 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in October? | BUY | 0.9909999995 | $4.00 |
| 10-07 02:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9949999594 | $18.00 |
| 09-15 02:56 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in September? | BUY | 0.982999998 | $4.00 |
| 09-15 02:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9889999985 | $4.00 |
| 08-22 05:07 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.976 | $1.50 |
| 08-22 05:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 23? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.50 |
| 08-08 03:10 | Golden State Valkyries vs. Dallas Wings | BUY | 0.9609999801 | $1.50 |
| 08-08 03:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9949999254 | $10.00 |
| 08-08 03:07 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 9? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.00 |
| 07-31 04:59 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9919997659 | $4.00 |
| 07-31 04:59 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1? | BUY | 0.9869999996 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 03:49 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 25? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.00 |
| 07-05 14:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July? | BUY | 0.9929999996 | $10.00 |