0x299792458
0xed6d365fd26e945c7c76f62414fb33c6c83ad964
- Realised P&L
- $452.64
- Volume
- $157.3k
- Markets traded
- 756
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded756
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.900 | $1.1k | +$125.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.945 | $346.35 | +$45.67 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.905 | $181.00 | +$31.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.075 | $27.94 | −$108.06 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.205 | $20.50 | −$8.50 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.660 | 0.720 | $10.91 | +$0.91 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.063 | $5.84 | −$4.16 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.115 | $4.79 | −$5.21 |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs · T1 | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$288.00 |
| Knicks vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$64.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.055 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$506.31at 0.660Warriors vs. Pistons
- +$471.87at 0.189LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
- +$351.73at 0.782LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner
- +$319.58at 0.769LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$246.73at 0.658Nuggets vs. Thunder
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 17:24 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.23 | $11.50 |
| 06-26 01:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $295.79 |
| 05-29 01:14 | Thunder vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.77 | $154.00 |
| 05-19 03:38 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 05-03 12:04 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.2199999727 | $5.00 |
| 04-30 02:19 | Raptors vs. Cavaliers | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 04-27 04:13 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 04-23 06:58 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 | BUY | 0.45817 | $44.33 |
| 04-20 01:21 | Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.8699999999 | $992.20 |
| 04-18 17:14 | LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 | SELL | 0.22 | $1.10 |
| 04-18 11:36 | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | BUY | 0.01 | $0.94 |
| 04-18 10:25 | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | SELL | 0.069996876 | $11.20 |
| 04-18 09:51 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 04-16 13:51 | LoL: HMBLE vs TITANS (BO1) - LIT Regular Season | BUY | 0.0899999599 | $1.89 |
| 04-16 13:50 | LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season | BUY | 0.16 | $2.85 |