0x299792458
0xed6d365fd26e945c7c76f62414fb33c6c83ad964
- Realised P&L
- $404.00
- Volume
- $160.9k
- Markets traded
- 763
- Open portfolio
- $224.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded763
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes | 0.113 | 0.230 | $203.54 | +$103.54 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.660 | 0.805 | $12.20 | +$2.20 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.095 | $3.96 | −$6.04 |
| Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.058 | $2.88 | +$0.47 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.019 | $1.76 | −$8.24 |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder · Nuggets | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Rockets vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage · Hanwha Life Esports | 0.416 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$506.31at 0.660Warriors vs. Pistons
- +$471.87at 0.189LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
- +$351.73at 0.782LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner
- +$319.58at 0.769LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$246.73at 0.658Nuggets vs. Thunder
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 06:53 | Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $2.40 |
| 10-25 17:43 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 17:36 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.3299999815 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 17:32 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.4199999966 | $5.00 |
| 10-25 17:27 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.699999965 | $10.00 |
| 10-24 01:48 | Rockets vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 10-10 09:24 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $190.00 |
| 10-06 10:37 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.1129999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-02 17:57 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 10-02 17:57 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $22.35 |
| 09-23 16:58 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.967 | $354.41 |
| 09-23 16:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.969 | $1.2k |
| 07-07 17:24 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.23 | $11.50 |
| 06-26 01:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $295.79 |
| 05-29 01:14 | Thunder vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.77 | $154.00 |