GoldenThiefBug
0xed65babc182d5017a67641a450aa9b006ced6673
- Realised P&L
- $-856.73
- Volume
- $186.4k
- Markets traded
- 549
- Open portfolio
- $0.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded549
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 30? · Yes | 0.623 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.16 |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$465.88at 0.514Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?
- +$414.60at 0.321Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
- +$307.28at 0.186Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on July 29?
- +$236.16at 0.182Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on April 18?
- +$160.82at 0.760Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:36 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.1450093078 | $8.57 |
| 09-30 17:56 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.16 |
| 09-29 12:36 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on September 29? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 10:04 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.725 | $7.25 |
| 09-26 10:04 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.32 |
| 09-24 18:01 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.8886162576 | $24.87 |
| 09-24 17:59 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.8699999958 | $12.45 |
| 09-24 17:56 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.665 | $6.65 |
| 09-24 17:52 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.8433333333 | $12.65 |
| 09-23 12:46 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.3 | $9.32 |
| 09-18 03:48 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.649999974 | $5.00 |
| 09-18 03:47 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.2199999901 | $4.00 |
| 09-18 03:46 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.0552054795 | $4.03 |
| 09-16 11:49 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.24 |
| 09-16 03:08 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.64 | $16.29 |