0.2
0xed61537ab38a00a99ee272acc63d934234061da6
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $89.4k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $14.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.055 | $14.30 | −$32.50 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.59 |
| Will Elon tweet 250–274 times August 15–August 22? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$84.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.240Will the Eagles win the NFC Championship?
- +$350.00at 0.300Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?
- +$330.00at 0.340Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?
- +$114.00at 0.240Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?
- +$104.70at 0.738Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-20 14:35 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | SELL | 0.9 | $171.00 |
| 02-06 08:53 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.85 | $161.50 |
| 02-01 15:44 | Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.67 | $160.80 |
| 01-19 18:00 | Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.7083333333 | $170.00 |
| 01-19 17:56 | Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $46.80 |
| 01-19 14:39 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.59 | $117.41 |
| 01-17 18:08 | Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? | BUY | 0.58 | $115.42 |
| 01-17 14:17 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.014 | $4.21 |
| 01-04 18:38 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.011 | $3.31 |
| 12-11 08:30 | BNB all time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.9837551 | $196.75 |
| 12-10 09:50 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.0159 | $1.59 |
| 12-10 09:47 | Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? | SELL | 0.987 | $214.06 |
| 11-18 16:20 | Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? | BUY | 0.975 | $106.27 |
| 11-18 16:20 | Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during December press conference? | BUY | 0.973 | $104.97 |
| 11-13 05:16 | Nuggets vs. Clippers | SELL | 0.08 | $4.00 |