0xeD5BA834cd6d2f3a1E958A6C8e503A15b2808924-1769891229344
0xed5ba834cd6d2f3a1e958a6c8e503a15b2808924
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $24.6k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No | 0.530 | 1.000 | $999.50 | +$469.50 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.033 | $162.50 | −$272.50 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? · No | 0.136 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$949.99 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.28 |
| Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$800.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$296.00at 0.630Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$280.00at 0.720Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$222.00at 0.630US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
- +$-200.00at 0.100US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 10:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.53 | $530.00 |
| 05-15 04:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.72 | $720.00 |
| 04-15 09:27 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.09 | $245.92 |
| 04-15 09:26 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY | 0.0226666667 | $1.56 |
| 04-12 05:54 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $800.00 |
| 04-03 07:23 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.087 | $435.00 |
| 03-28 20:17 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $200.00 |
| 03-14 15:13 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $378.00 |
| 03-13 17:39 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $59.48 |
| 03-13 17:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.63 | $504.00 |
| 03-03 06:45 | Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 17:12 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.002 | $6.00 |