asfrdsvr
0xed2479b8063e3caf1c0341abb509f86d23609e2b
- Realised P&L
- $-62.14
- Volume
- $22.9k
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $207.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.989 | 0.992 | $101.13 | +$0.25 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $6.50? · No | 0.998 | 0.506 | $63.25 | −$61.50 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $0.50? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.505 | $43.01 | −$41.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.35at 0.930Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of May 4 2026?
- +$16.67at 0.971Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
- +$8.20at 0.610Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?
- +$7.35at 0.989Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$7.14at 0.987Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 01:49 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $0.50? | BUY | 0.9988237368 | $85.00 |
| 08-09 01:48 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of August 10 above $6.50? | BUY | 0.998 | $124.75 |
| 08-04 06:51 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on August 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $111.89 |
| 08-04 06:49 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $99.90 |
| 07-30 07:00 | Will Chainlink dip to $2 in July? | BUY | 0.998 | $124.75 |
| 07-21 09:01 | Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $150.85 |
| 07-15 01:56 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 13 above $110? | BUY | 0.997 | $78.76 |
| 07-15 01:53 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $30-$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 13 – Jul 17? | BUY | 0.998 | $237.52 |
| 07-08 08:34 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.90 Week of July 6 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $196.80 |
| 07-07 07:38 | Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.9983344426 | $120.00 |
| 07-07 07:37 | Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $178.82 |
| 07-01 23:27 | Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on July 3? | BUY | 0.997 | $99.70 |
| 06-26 23:41 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $65 in June? | BUY | 0.9834536365 | $81.00 |
| 06-26 23:38 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $240 end of June? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 06-26 23:31 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $110-$120 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $44.06 |