0xED04895E5368b4aB0D8A3aB525E378726b487419-1764171694529
0xed04895e5368b4ab0d8a3ab525e378726b487419
- Realised P&L
- $-230.98
- Volume
- $57.4k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $3.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed abolished before 2027? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.020 | $3.45 | −$6.55 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? · No | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.29at 0.516Temple Owls vs. Charlotte 49ers
- +$32.40at 0.190Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?
- +$24.61at 0.379Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference?
- +$19.22at 0.510Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)
- +$-0.58at 0.130Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-02 18:13 | Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | BUY | 0.01 | $3.00 |
| 03-02 18:12 | Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? | SELL | 0.02 | $1.46 |
| 03-02 18:12 | Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.94 |
| 02-20 13:18 | Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? | BUY | 0.1299999577 | $2.52 |
| 02-20 13:17 | US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 02-20 13:17 | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999845 | $5.00 |
| 02-20 13:16 | Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0310884012 | $11.96 |
| 02-10 17:05 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.00 |
| 02-10 17:05 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-10 17:04 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-03 20:28 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 02-03 20:23 | Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 02-03 20:23 | Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | BUY | 0.0170000001 | $3.00 |
| 01-29 21:18 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.0150349939 | $5.00 |
| 01-29 21:18 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.0374933449 | $5.00 |