PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

alex101

0xece5634ace7b052a5757d88ea394e9ce8bf843cf

Realised P&L
$3.0k
Volume
$1.91M
Markets traded
2,332
Open portfolio
$5.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,332
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No0.7180.794$4.0k+$382.50
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.5700.555$1.1k−$30.46
1win FDV above $45M one day after launch? · Yes0.6601.000$499.75+$169.75
Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.8981.000$299.85+$30.45

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-23 11:42Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 24?BUY0.9799341033$288.49
07-22 08:00Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 24?BUY0.9847619048$51.70
07-22 07:59Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 24?BUY0.99$9.90
07-21 08:27Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on July 23?BUY0.99$31.49
07-20 09:22Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on July 20?BUY0.9823460859$83.45
07-20 09:20Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 22?BUY0.9886185044$78.00
07-20 09:06Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 22?BUY0.99$43.46
07-19 07:34Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 21?BUY0.9881281932$42.55
07-19 07:32Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 21?BUY0.99$270.69
07-18 09:26Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 20?BUY0.89$79.14
07-18 09:19Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 20?BUY0.99$155.70
07-18 08:42Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 20?BUY0.99$1.98
07-18 08:38Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 20?BUY0.99$1.98
07-16 06:56Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 18?BUY0.99$273.24
07-15 21:20Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 15?SELL0.9812270263$155.68