alex101
0xece5634ace7b052a5757d88ea394e9ce8bf843cf
- Realised P&L
- $3.0k
- Volume
- $1.91M
- Markets traded
- 2,332
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,332
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? · No | 0.718 | 0.794 | $4.0k | +$382.50 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.555 | $1.1k | −$30.46 |
| 1win FDV above $45M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.660 | 1.000 | $499.75 | +$169.75 |
| Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.898 | 1.000 | $299.85 | +$30.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$500.00at 0.500Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10AM ET
- +$500.00at 0.160Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$174.43at 0.100No airdrop in 2025?
- +$134.00at 0.897Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C or below on April 20?
- +$130.00at 0.350Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 11:42 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.9799341033 | $288.49 |
| 07-22 08:00 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.9847619048 | $51.70 |
| 07-22 07:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |
| 07-21 08:27 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on July 23? | BUY | 0.99 | $31.49 |
| 07-20 09:22 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on July 20? | BUY | 0.9823460859 | $83.45 |
| 07-20 09:20 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 22? | BUY | 0.9886185044 | $78.00 |
| 07-20 09:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 22? | BUY | 0.99 | $43.46 |
| 07-19 07:34 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.9881281932 | $42.55 |
| 07-19 07:32 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.99 | $270.69 |
| 07-18 09:26 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 20? | BUY | 0.89 | $79.14 |
| 07-18 09:19 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 20? | BUY | 0.99 | $155.70 |
| 07-18 08:42 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 20? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.98 |
| 07-18 08:38 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 20? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.98 |
| 07-16 06:56 | Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on July 18? | BUY | 0.99 | $273.24 |
| 07-15 21:20 | Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 15? | SELL | 0.9812270263 | $155.68 |