0xecd2575821f610f5ec558fdbda5156ba7485bb24
- Realised P&L
- $-5.59
- Volume
- $336.00
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $59.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.915 | $19.21 | +$2.63 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.925 | $12.95 | +$1.61 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.895 | $6.26 | −$0.04 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.945 | $5.67 | +$0.87 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.464 | 0.912 | $5.47 | +$2.69 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.930 | 0.958 | $4.79 | +$0.14 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.065 | $1.82 | −$2.94 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.085 | $1.53 | −$1.71 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.075 | $1.35 | −$2.07 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.087 | $0.44 | −$2.12 |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.36 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.35at 0.708Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.06at 0.950China coup attempt before 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
- +$-0.18at 0.900China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 09:44 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $6.30 |
| 06-11 10:10 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.65 |
| 06-01 09:03 | China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $8.10 |
| 06-01 09:03 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.512 | $2.56 |
| 05-25 23:04 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.80 |
| 05-23 20:53 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $16.59 |
| 05-21 06:22 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.17 | $4.76 |
| 05-21 06:22 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $3.24 |
| 05-21 06:22 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.464 | $2.78 |
| 04-26 03:56 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $4.75 |
| 04-26 03:55 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $11.34 |
| 04-26 03:55 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.42 |
| 04-22 02:41 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.708 | $3.54 |
| 03-26 10:37 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $7.44 |
| 03-26 10:37 | Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $17.71 |