someone41
0xecc8c4d44060eb23f505902f609bc95132be9f59
- Realised P&L
- $70.01
- Volume
- $59.8k
- Markets traded
- 401
- Open portfolio
- $82.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded401
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration4.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on September 26? · No | 0.982 | 0.999 | $82.82 | +$1.40 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.70 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? · No | 0.969 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.73at 0.923Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 11?
- +$6.67at 0.953Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8?
- +$5.17at 0.979Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4?
- +$4.89at 0.977Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 28?
- +$3.92at 0.982Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 07:26 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.99 | $12.97 |
| 09-25 07:25 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on September 26? | BUY | 0.98 | $68.44 |
| 09-25 07:25 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on September 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $81.49 |
| 09-24 13:02 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on September 25? | BUY | 0.99 | $80.75 |
| 09-24 13:02 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $80.79 |
| 09-23 03:17 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 24? | BUY | 0.98 | $79.25 |
| 09-23 03:09 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.999 | $79.32 |
| 09-22 13:41 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.99 | $78.61 |
| 09-22 13:39 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 22? | SELL | 0.999 | $55.52 |
| 09-22 13:39 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 22? | SELL | 0.999 | $22.98 |
| 09-21 09:29 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 22? | BUY | 0.988 | $22.72 |
| 09-21 09:12 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 22? | BUY | 0.991 | $12.39 |
| 09-21 09:10 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 22? | BUY | 0.991 | $4.96 |
| 09-21 09:09 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or below on September 22? | BUY | 0.99 | $37.70 |
| 09-21 07:08 | Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.999 | $65.91 |