Elark
0xecaf8a9280d93eaeb4ca30f3043b0dce4fe9992f
- Realised P&L
- $40.98
- Volume
- $687.28
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $24.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.090 | $24.29 | −$36.84 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 5? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.99 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.585 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.44 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.05 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.06at 0.260Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
- +$10.00at 0.300Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$6.38at 0.140Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$0.47at 0.800T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1)
- +$-1.41at 0.110Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 01:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.045 | $0.95 |
| 06-25 06:25 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999909 | $12.86 |
| 06-25 06:22 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.56 |
| 05-13 06:58 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.26 | $15.31 |
| 05-04 06:39 | Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | SELL | 0.993 | $61.07 |
| 03-15 14:13 | Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | BUY | 0.26 | $15.99 |
| 02-28 14:42 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | SELL | 0.8 | $16.00 |
| 02-28 14:40 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.5849999678 | $7.44 |
| 02-28 06:51 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.991 | $7.43 |
| 02-17 08:32 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999589 | $2.33 |
| 02-15 14:21 | T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) | BUY | 0.8 | $1.86 |
| 02-04 14:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 10? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.04 |
| 02-02 17:37 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 01-30 07:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 5? | BUY | 0.0495 | $0.99 |
| 01-30 06:56 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.075 | $10.05 |