marianox
0xec938d3d4f6cc728095df19132a914758dfea43e
- Realised P&L
- $-16.48
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $86.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration86.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.79at 0.078Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$4.56at 0.570Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$3.35at 0.230S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?
- +$2.78at 0.180Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
- +$0.42at 0.240Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 16:09 | Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.189999988 | $10.00 |
| 06-09 15:49 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0699999969 | $20.00 |
| 06-02 08:49 | No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | SELL | 0.9 | $9.00 |
| 05-04 11:37 | Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? | BUY | 0.0189999817 | $1.00 |
| 05-04 11:37 | Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? | BUY | 0.0148375146 | $1.00 |
| 04-28 13:35 | Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 04-28 13:35 | Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open? | BUY | 0.05 | $6.00 |
| 04-28 13:35 | Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open? | BUY | 0.0499099126 | $10.00 |
| 04-27 19:10 | Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open? | BUY | 0.0324777062 | $0.94 |
| 04-21 11:32 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $24.56 |
| 04-15 19:09 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.3699999771 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 15:47 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.7249999994 | $30.00 |
| 03-10 15:20 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 03-09 13:12 | Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? | BUY | 0.0660750783 | $1.00 |
| 03-09 13:10 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.3190014258 | $5.00 |