PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

marianox

0xec938d3d4f6cc728095df19132a914758dfea43e

Realised P&L
$-16.48
Volume
$2.4k
Markets traded
32
Open portfolio
$86.22

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded32
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration86.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)37.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No0.5600.735$39.37+$9.37
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.7250.810$33.54+$3.54
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? · Yes0.2600.125$6.25$6.75
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No0.7700.945$6.14+$1.14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.4100.065$0.79$4.21
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0400.006$0.15$0.85
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00$10.00
Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open? · Yes0.0480.000$0.00$17.96
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00$1.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.3190.000$0.00$5.00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$20.00
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$3.00
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$1.00
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00$10.00
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · No0.3700.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-30 16:09Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?BUY0.189999988$10.00
06-09 15:49Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY0.0699999969$20.00
06-02 08:49No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027SELL0.9$9.00
05-04 11:37Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?BUY0.0189999817$1.00
05-04 11:37Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?BUY0.0148375146$1.00
04-28 13:35Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?BUY0.05$1.00
04-28 13:35Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?BUY0.05$6.00
04-28 13:35Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?BUY0.0499099126$10.00
04-27 19:10Will Francisco Cerúndolo win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?BUY0.0324777062$0.94
04-21 11:32Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?SELL0.7$24.56
04-15 19:09Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY0.3699999771$10.00
04-08 15:47Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.7249999994$30.00
03-10 15:20S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?BUY0.2299998275$1.00
03-09 13:12Will Fernando Mendoza be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?BUY0.0660750783$1.00
03-09 13:10Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.3190014258$5.00